Quantifying the epidemic of abortions in India

In 2018, a paper called "The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015" was published. The results published in this paper were a shocker. Some excerpts

We estimated that 15·6 million abortions (range 14·1 million–17·3 million) took place in India in 2015, giving an abortion rate of 47·0 (42·2–52·1) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years.

80% of pregnancies were aborted using pills easily available in chemist shops.

 12·7 million abortions (81%) were medication abortions obtained either in or outside facilities (figure 1). 2·2 million abortions (14%) were by surgical methods, and 0·8 million abortions (5%) were done outside of facilities by methods other than medication or surgical abortion.

A third of all pregnancies were aborted according to this report.

 33% of pregnancies ended in induced abortions, and 14% of pregnancies ended in a miscarriage. 52% of all pregnancies were intended

These numbers are huge, last estimate was of 6.4 million abortions in 2003 (link here). It is hard to believe that a third of all pregnancies are aborted. So let's try and fact check.

Abortion Pill Market

A combo of mifepristone and misoprostol pills is used for abortion. It is recommended to be used before 7-8 weeks of pregnancy to avoid complications. This combo kit is different from iPill or other morning after pills. As per QuintilesIMS, a pharma market research firm, the abortion pill market is worth Rs. 400 Cr. Cadila Pharma's Mifegest Kit and Mankind Pharma's Unwanted kit have 25pc market share each. Other 20-22 pharma companies have the rest 50pc market share (link here). At a cost of Rs. 300 per kit, it would seem that about 13.5 million abortion pill kits are sold annually.

Mankind & Cadila sold abortion pill kits worth 2000 Million Rs in 2018. At Rs 300 a kit sales price to company, these 2 cos sell 6.7 million abortion pill kits annually. These 2 cos have 50pc market share.

These pharma sales numbers confirm that the research published in the Lancet is not far off from mark.

How did we get here?

1. Legalization of abortion in India viz Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act in 1971, heavily pushed by the west. Ford foundation was the chief player

2. 2002 - amendment to the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act, permitting medication abortion up to 7 weeks' gestation

3. 2003 - a further amendment, allowing certified abortion providers to prescribe medication abortion drugs outside of a registered facility as long as emergency facilities were available to them.

4. Abortion pills are sold like candy

A 2015 study showed that only 14% pharmacists asked for doctors prescription from anyone wishing to buy these abortion pill kits. Which means that there is 100% probability that the kit can be purchased at one shop or the other.

After medication abortions were legalized in 2002, Cadila Pharma was already selling above a million doses a year by 2005.

What does this mean?

India had close to 25.6 million live births in 2012. 2016 numbers are also closer to 26 million. Adding 15.5 million abortions and 7 million miscarriages, we find that total pregnancies were around 48 million. ie. a third of pregnancies were aborted. 

Abortion (भ्रूणहत्या) is a mahapaap for Hindus. It is difficult for divinity to reside in a land where such organized murders are allowed to happen without anyone even batting an eye. Harbinger of further societal decay - broken families, increased premarital sex, increased single parent families, adultery, cuckoldry.

However, the practical solution to curb this epidemic will need to distribute the penalty on the would be fathers as well.