Saturday, April 27, 2019

Is India the most dangerous country for women?


A propaganda survey done by Thomson Reuters Foundation became viral recently. It showed India as the most dangerous country for women, more dangerous than Afghanistan, Syria & Somalia 😂.
Here's the methodology that the survey followed
 We contacted 548 experts focused on women’s issues including aid and development professionals, academics, health workers, policymakers, non-government organisation workers, journalists, and social commentators.
So Reuters foundation contacted 548 crackpot feminists and asked them their 'perception' of the state of women in various countries. Emotions, not data. Pure propaganda. With this you can also figure out the kind of anti India and anti Hindu propaganda being discussed in feminist circles.

Let's compare actual sexual violence data from various western countries and India

First, let us look at rape rates from crimes reported to cops. India ranks as 94th highest rape rate country with 1.8 rapes per 100,000 citizens. USA is 14th with 27.3, Australia 11th with 28.6, Germany 43rd with 9.4 and so on as per data compiled by Nationmaster

The common complaint against this type of comparison is that reporting rates are low in India and hence this comparison is invalid. This is true, underreporting is not factored into this comparison. However, all countries have sex crimes under reported. For example, underreporting in India is anywhere between 85% to 99%. Under reporting in USA is anywhere between 60% to 80%.
Then there are other issues which make it difficult to compare these numbers. India doesnt recognize marital rape, USA does. In India, men can be charged for rape even if sex was consensual but 'under the false pretext of future marriage'. Countries like sweden count multiple crimes for the same victim if the crime occurs over many days, which is not true for USA or India.
Hence, we must look elsewhere for a just comparison. We have just that thing.

Data from nationwide surveys

Best method to compare sexual violence rates across countries is from nationwide surveys (face to face or telephonic) where women are asked specific relevant questions directly. 

Relevant survey reports for our purpose are:


5758 women aged 18+ from all 50 US states were interviewed using standardized questionnaire. This makes it a standardized nationwide survey. For a female population of 158 million, the confidence interval is 1.3% with 95% confidence level. Which means that if 16% of interviewed women said they were raped in their lifetime, one can can be 95% sure that the actual american percentage for all women lies between 14.7% and 17.3%.
Source: NISVS survey 2015: Lifetime victims of rape in USA numbers 25.5 million ie. 16.1% of 158 million female population 

2. European Union - EU wide FRA survey 2012


42000 women aged 18-74 from EU member states were asked questions on sexual violence faced through face to face interviews. This makes it a EU representative sample. For a female population of 260 million, the confidence interval is 0.63% with 99% confidence level. This means that if 11% of surveyed EU women said they were raped in lifetime, one can be 99% sure that between 10.37% and 11.63% of all EU women were actually sexually coerced.

Denmark is at 19%, France 15%, Germany 12%, UK 14%, EU average is 11%.
FRA - Sexual violence against Women Survey 2012


83000 women aged 15-49 from all states were asked questionnaires through face to face interviews. This makes it a nationwide representative sample. For a female population of 645 million, the confidence interval is 0.45% with 99% confidence level. This means that if 6% of surveyed Indian said they were sexually assaulted in lifetime, one can be 99% sure that between 5.55% and 6.45% of all Indian women were actually sexually coerced.


Only 5.8% Indian women aged 15-49 reported being sexually abused

ONLY 5.8% INDIAN WOMEN REPORTED BEING SEXUALLY ASSAULTED, COMPARED TO 16% AMERICAN AND 11% EU WOMEN

It is also pertinent to note that between 2005-2006 and 2015, women who reported being sexually assaulted has fallen from 8.5% to 5.8%. (NFHS3 and NFHS4)

FRA Survey and NFHS sexual violence survey questionnaires compared

The administered questionnaires are identical 



CONCLUSION

INDIA IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO THE MOST DANGEROUS COUNTRY FOR WOMEN, AT LEAST AS FAR AS SEXUAL VIOLENCE IS CONCERNED. 

Sexual violence in india is also falling rapidly. Please rely on ground data, not 'perceptions' of crackpot feminists. Feminists lose their jobs if they opine that there is no large scale systematic issue - they lie to keep their jobs and keep funds coming.



Update: Please note - Indian survey surveyed 15-50 year olds. US survey surveyed 15-75 year olds. EU survey surveyed 18-75 year olds. However, as we are dealing with percentages, this womnt change indian overall % much. Even if we consider 50-75 year olds have lifetime rape rate of 15%, the overall percentage will change from 5.8% to 7.2%.

Quantifying the epidemic of abortions in India

In 2018, a paper called "The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015" was published. The results published in this paper were a shocker. Some excerpts
We estimated that 15·6 million abortions (range 14·1 million–17·3 million) took place in India in 2015, giving an abortion rate of 47·0 (42·2–52·1) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years.
80% of pregnancies were aborted using pills easily available in chemist shops.
 12·7 million abortions (81%) were medication abortions obtained either in or outside facilities (figure 1). 2·2 million abortions (14%) were by surgical methods, and 0·8 million abortions (5%) were done outside of facilities by methods other than medication or surgical abortion.
A third of all pregnancies were aborted according to this report.
 33% of pregnancies ended in induced abortions, and 14% of pregnancies ended in a miscarriage. 52% of all pregnancies were intended
These numbers are huge, last estimate was of 6.4 million abortions in 2003 (link here). It is hard to believe that a third of all pregnancies are aborted. So let's try and fact check.

Abortion Pill Market

A combo of mifepristone and misoprostol pills is used for abortion. It is recommended to be used before 7-8 weeks of pregnancy to avoid complications. This combo kit is different from iPill or other morning after pills. As per QuintilesIMS, a pharma market research firm, the abortion pill market is worth Rs. 400 Cr. Cadila Pharma's Mifegest Kit and Mankind Pharma's Unwanted kit have 25pc market share each. Other 20-22 pharma companies have the rest 50pc market share (link here). At a cost of Rs. 300 per kit, it would seem that about 13.5 million abortion pill kits are sold annually.

Mankind & Cadila sold abortion pill kits worth 2000 Million Rs in 2018. At Rs 300 a kit sales price to company, these 2 cos sell 6.7 million abortion pill kits annually. These 2 cos have 50pc market share.

These pharma sales numbers confirm that the research published in the Lancet is not far off from mark.


How did we get here?

1. Legalization of abortion in India viz Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act in 1971, heavily pushed by the west. Ford foundation was the chief player

2. 2002 - amendment to the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act, permitting medication abortion up to 7 weeks' gestation

3. 2003 - a further amendment, allowing certified abortion providers to prescribe medication abortion drugs outside of a registered facility as long as emergency facilities were available to them.

4. Abortion pills are sold like candy

2015 study showed that only 14% pharmacists asked for doctors prescription from anyone wishing to buy these abortion pill kits. Which means that there is 100% probability that the kit can be purchased at one shop or the other.

After medication abortions were legalized in 2002, Cadila Pharma was already selling above a million doses a year by 2005.

What does this mean?

India had close to 25.6 million live births in 2012. 2016 numbers are also closer to 26 million. Adding 15.5 million abortions and 7 million miscarriages, we find that total pregnancies were around 48 million. ie. a third of pregnancies were aborted. 



Abortion (भ्रूणहत्या) is a mahapaap for Hindus. It is difficult for divinity to reside in a land where such organized murders are allowed to happen without anyone even batting an eye. Harbinger of further societal decay - broken families, increased premarital sex, increased single parent families, adultery, cuckoldry.

However, the practical solution to curb this epidemic will need to distribute the penalty on the would be fathers as well.