78 lakh boys and 78 lakh girls were aborted in India in 2015!

A paper was published in 2018 which proved that 15.6 million abortions happened in India in the year 2015. I have independently done a basic fact check here using abortion pill sales data, and the number seems to be accurate. The paper also shows that one third of pregnancies in India are aborted.

99% of Indians also have ingested the propaganda that Indians exclusively abort female babies using sex selective abortion. It is as if boys aren't aborted at all. Consider this article - 

India witnesses one of the highest female infanticide incidents in the world: study

The headline says infanticide (killing of an infant), but the article is actually about foeticide. 2 completely separate issues. Foeticide means abortion, killing the unborn foetus. 

For the 'my body my choice feminists' who consider foetuses as non-humans and akin to a tumorous clump of cells, sex selective abortions shouldn't be disgusting at all. After all, the woman is exercising her choice and the foetus isn't even human!

But they do, of course for political and NGO funding reasons. The moral stand to take is to be against all abortions. But i digress, lower female to male sex ratio can indeed pose problems for society and thus needs to be addressed.

That will be shocking to most is when they find out the actual estimates of boys and girls aborted annually. 

Estimating abortion numbers by sex

Assumptions and data

1. It needs to be understood that nature doesn't give equal outcome. Thus the current average of birth sex ratio (BSR) of all countries is 1.0532 male births per female birth. ie. for 10000 live girls born, 10532 boys will be born. We will take this as natural Indian baseline (however Indian BSR might naturally be higher, no studies on it). Source: World bank data for 2017

2. No of live births in 2015 were 25.4448 million. Data from National Family Health Survey 2015-2016 - NFHS4 - (crude birth rate of 19.0 per 1000 population in 2015 and 133.9 Crore population), confirmed with 2012 UNICEF data.

3. Abortions in 2015 were 15.6 million from the paper linked at the top. So total births without any abortions = 15.6+25.445 = 41.045 million.

4. Indian birth sex ratio in 2012-2016 was 1.085 averaged (NFHS 4, Appendix E, 922 girls per 1000 boys).

From the above facts & assumptions, our computation yields that instead of 21.05Mn boys and 19.99Mn girls, 13.24Mn boys & 12.2Mn girls were born in 2015. 

Ie 7.8 million boys and equal number of girls were aborted in 2015. This completely shatters the narrative that feminists want to set.

What does this data say about sex selective abortion

Boys and girls are not being aborted in the natural ratio of 1.05/1.06. So, some sex selection is indeed happening if we take natural Indian BSR to be 1.05/1.06. However, this sex selection can happen consciously or unconsciously. Some couples may be consciously aborting girl child.

Some may be doing it without knowing the sex. Research has shown that chance of girl being born slightly increases with mothers age, fathers age and existing number of children. So older couples who abort because they want no more children might be aborting more girls than boys unconsciously.

It is also possible that Indian BSR is now higher naturally in the range of 1.07/1.08. If this is true, this would then mean that sex selective abortions have become negligible. There are various studies which make this scenario slightly possible.

This 2011 paper "Sex Ratio at Birth and Mortality Rates Are Negatively Related in Humans" concludes that BSR increases as the country develops. It concludes

The correlation among SRB, fertility, GDP and life expectancy suggests that as human populations become more wealthy, the life expectancy increases (r = 0.80, p<0.001), total fertility is reduced (r = −0.75, p<0.001) and more sons are produced (r = 0.52, p<0.001)

This 2018 paper "Is sex ratio at birth an appropriate measure of prenatal sex selection? Findings of a theoretical model and its application to India". It concludes

Perhaps counterintuitively, we show that when the number of children per family is decreasing on average, the SRB bias may still increase despite a decreasing proportion of parents seeking sex-selective intervention. This is because, as we have shown, the impact of each sex selection event on distorting the aggregated SRB varies according to the level of fertility and increases with a reduction of average family size in an exponential relationship. This disproportionality effect is independent of the fertility squeeze effect.

The paper says that reduction in sex selection in a falling fertility scenario will not guarantee that sex ratio at birth improves. Fascinating. The feminists will keep blaming 'misogynist' Indians as the sex ratio will never improve even if sex selection stops.

SUMMING IT UP

Equal number of boys and girls are aborted annually. Those who complain about sex selective abortions should either take an anti abortion stance or make it clear that it is not the aborted babies that that they care about.

Note: Miscarriages have been ignored. Roughly 6-7Mn miscarriages happen annually in India.
Fun Fact: Wife does not need husband's consent to abort baby as per Indian laws

Has alcohol prohibition worked in Gujarat?

Consider this news article dated 5th Feb 2019. "Is prohibition really effective in Gujarat?"
This article starts with

In dry Gujarat, two cases from different parts of the State show how prohibition is a sham.

Then they go on to narrate 2 cases where bootleggers were apprehended with a stash of alcohol to prove this awesome conclusion. There are frequent opinion pieces and articles like the above which rail against the law citing violation of personal freedoms, tax revenue loss, ineffectiveness of prohibition etc. More often that not, these pieces are written by bevdas who love their alcohol.

Qualitatively, the results have been clear for all to see. Most gujaratis will not mind people drinking in their private spaces, however they do not tolerate drunk people on the streets. Such people are looked at with disdain. Street drunkenness has not been normalized because it is indeed rare. That's a major positive, for the law as well for street safety.

But lets look at some data:

Below chart is from Nationwide survey - National Family Health Survey 4 (2015-16)

NFHS4 2015-16: % of men & women who consume alcohol - statewise

At 11% of men, Gujarat ranks in bottom 3 states in terms of % of people who consume alcohol. This is one third the Indian average. The law has absolutely worked. 

It is clear that decently enforced prohibition works (train and bus passengers embarking at Karnavati are checked for alcohol in buses, autos, train stations randomly). It is also apparent that no ban works 100%, and also leaves scope for some corruption and black-marketeering. But those side effects are well worth the actual outcome.

Societal ill effects of alcohol

1. Alcohol use is highly positively related to domestic violence on women. Below chart from NFHS4 is self explanatory. Alcohol is a breaker of families.

2. Alcohol use makes the streets & homes unsafe for women

85% crime against women due to alcoholism: NCRB 

3. Alcohol is the most widely used date rape drug

The recent #metooindia stories throw light on how woke male feminists use alcohol to take advantage of women who have reduced defenses. Studies prove that alcohol is a most potent and widely used date rape drug. 50% of violent crime and sexual assaults involve the use of alcohol.

4. Hindu community more afflicted 

NFHS data also shows us that 32% of Hindu men consume alcohol as opposed to 11% muslim men.

Feminists should be the first ones to demand heavy regulation of alcohol

This is how the american 1st wave feminist movement started. But modern feminists want to play a game of race to the bottom, drinking alcohol and partying with strangers is a mark of high status for them. Freedom to be stupid! Liberalism is a race to the bottom indeed as Indian alcohol consumption increased 38% in last 7 years. Time for people to start shaming drunkards......

Is India the most dangerous country for women?

A propaganda survey done by Thomson Reuters Foundation became viral recently. It showed India as the most dangerous country for women, more dangerous than Afghanistan, Syria & Somalia 😂.

Most dangerous countries for women, 2018.

1. India

2. Afghanistan

3. Syria

4. Somalia

5. Saudi Arabia

6. Pakistan

7. DR Congo

8. Yemen

9. Nigeria

10. United States

(Thomson Reuters)

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) December 3, 2018

Here's the methodology that the survey followed

 We contacted 548 experts focused on women’s issues including aid and development professionals, academics, health workers, policymakers, non-government organisation workers, journalists, and social commentators.

So Reuters foundation contacted 548 crackpot feminists and asked them their 'perception' of the state of women in various countries. Emotions, not data. Pure propaganda. With this you can also figure out the kind of anti India and anti Hindu propaganda being discussed in feminist circles.

Let's compare actual sexual violence data from various western countries and India

First, let us look at rape rates from crimes reported to cops. India ranks as 94th highest rape rate country with 1.8 rapes per 100,000 citizens. USA is 14th with 27.3, Australia 11th with 28.6, Germany 43rd with 9.4 and so on as per data compiled by Nationmaster

The common complaint against this type of comparison is that reporting rates are low in India and hence this comparison is invalid. This is true, underreporting is not factored into this comparison. However, all countries have sex crimes under reported. For example, underreporting in India is anywhere between 85% to 99%. Under reporting in USA is anywhere between 60% to 80%.

Then there are other issues which make it difficult to compare these numbers. India doesnt recognize marital rape, USA does. In India, men can be charged for rape even if sex was consensual but 'under the false pretext of future marriage'. Countries like sweden count multiple crimes for the same victim if the crime occurs over many days, which is not true for USA or India.

Hence, we must look elsewhere for a just comparison. We have just that thing.

Data from nationwide surveys

Best method to compare sexual violence rates across countries is from nationwide surveys (face to face or telephonic) where women are asked specific relevant questions directly. 

Relevant survey reports for our purpose are:

1. United States - National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey (NISVS) 2015 - US Govt. CDC 

5758 women aged 18+ from all 50 US states were interviewed using standardized questionnaire. This makes it a standardized nationwide survey. For a female population of 158 million, the confidence interval is 1.3% with 95% confidence level. Which means that if 16% of interviewed women said they were raped in their lifetime, one can can be 95% sure that the actual american percentage for all women lies between 14.7% and 17.3%.

Source: NISVS survey 2015: Lifetime victims of rape in USA numbers 25.5 million ie. 16.1% of 158 million female population 

2. European Union - EU wide FRA survey 2012

42000 women aged 18-74 from EU member states were asked questions on sexual violence faced through face to face interviews. This makes it a EU representative sample. For a female population of 260 million, the confidence interval is 0.63% with 99% confidence level. This means that if 11% of surveyed EU women said they were raped in lifetime, one can be 99% sure that between 10.37% and 11.63% of all EU women were actually sexually coerced.

Denmark is at 19%, France 15%, Germany 12%, UK 14%, EU average is 11%.

FRA - Sexual violence against Women Survey 2012

3. India - National Family Health Survey 4 2015-2016

83000 women aged 15-49 from all states were asked questionnaires through face to face interviews. This makes it a nationwide representative sample. For a female population of 645 million, the confidence interval is 0.45% with 99% confidence level. This means that if 6% of surveyed Indian said they were sexually assaulted in lifetime, one can be 99% sure that between 5.55% and 6.45% of all Indian women were actually sexually coerced.

Only 5.8% Indian women aged 15-49 reported being sexually abused

ONLY 5.8% INDIAN WOMEN REPORTED BEING SEXUALLY ASSAULTED, COMPARED TO 16% AMERICAN AND 11% EU WOMEN

It is also pertinent to note that between 2005-2006 and 2015, women who reported being sexually assaulted has fallen from 8.5% to 5.8%. (NFHS3 and NFHS4)

FRA Survey and NFHS sexual violence survey questionnaires compared

The administered questionnaires are identical 

CONCLUSION

INDIA IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO THE MOST DANGEROUS COUNTRY FOR WOMEN, AT LEAST AS FAR AS SEXUAL VIOLENCE IS CONCERNED. 

Sexual violence in india is also falling rapidly. Please rely on ground data, not 'perceptions' of crackpot feminists. Feminists lose their jobs if they opine that there is no large scale systematic issue - they lie to keep their jobs and keep funds coming.

Update: Please note - Indian survey surveyed 15-50 year olds. US survey surveyed 15-75 year olds. EU survey surveyed 18-75 year olds. However, as we are dealing with percentages, this womnt change indian overall % much. Even if we consider 50-75 year olds have lifetime rape rate of 15%, the overall percentage will change from 5.8% to 7.2%.

Quantifying the epidemic of abortions in India

In 2018, a paper called "The incidence of abortion and unintended pregnancy in India, 2015" was published. The results published in this paper were a shocker. Some excerpts

We estimated that 15·6 million abortions (range 14·1 million–17·3 million) took place in India in 2015, giving an abortion rate of 47·0 (42·2–52·1) per 1000 women aged 15–49 years.

80% of pregnancies were aborted using pills easily available in chemist shops.

 12·7 million abortions (81%) were medication abortions obtained either in or outside facilities (figure 1). 2·2 million abortions (14%) were by surgical methods, and 0·8 million abortions (5%) were done outside of facilities by methods other than medication or surgical abortion.

A third of all pregnancies were aborted according to this report.

 33% of pregnancies ended in induced abortions, and 14% of pregnancies ended in a miscarriage. 52% of all pregnancies were intended

These numbers are huge, last estimate was of 6.4 million abortions in 2003 (link here). It is hard to believe that a third of all pregnancies are aborted. So let's try and fact check.

Abortion Pill Market

A combo of mifepristone and misoprostol pills is used for abortion. It is recommended to be used before 7-8 weeks of pregnancy to avoid complications. This combo kit is different from iPill or other morning after pills. As per QuintilesIMS, a pharma market research firm, the abortion pill market is worth Rs. 400 Cr. Cadila Pharma's Mifegest Kit and Mankind Pharma's Unwanted kit have 25pc market share each. Other 20-22 pharma companies have the rest 50pc market share (link here). At a cost of Rs. 300 per kit, it would seem that about 13.5 million abortion pill kits are sold annually.

Mankind & Cadila sold abortion pill kits worth 2000 Million Rs in 2018. At Rs 300 a kit sales price to company, these 2 cos sell 6.7 million abortion pill kits annually. These 2 cos have 50pc market share.

These pharma sales numbers confirm that the research published in the Lancet is not far off from mark.

How did we get here?

1. Legalization of abortion in India viz Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act in 1971, heavily pushed by the west. Ford foundation was the chief player

2. 2002 - amendment to the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act, permitting medication abortion up to 7 weeks' gestation

3. 2003 - a further amendment, allowing certified abortion providers to prescribe medication abortion drugs outside of a registered facility as long as emergency facilities were available to them.

4. Abortion pills are sold like candy

A 2015 study showed that only 14% pharmacists asked for doctors prescription from anyone wishing to buy these abortion pill kits. Which means that there is 100% probability that the kit can be purchased at one shop or the other.

After medication abortions were legalized in 2002, Cadila Pharma was already selling above a million doses a year by 2005.

What does this mean?

India had close to 25.6 million live births in 2012. 2016 numbers are also closer to 26 million. Adding 15.5 million abortions and 7 million miscarriages, we find that total pregnancies were around 48 million. ie. a third of pregnancies were aborted. 

Abortion (भ्रूणहत्या) is a mahapaap for Hindus. It is difficult for divinity to reside in a land where such organized murders are allowed to happen without anyone even batting an eye. Harbinger of further societal decay - broken families, increased premarital sex, increased single parent families, adultery, cuckoldry.

However, the practical solution to curb this epidemic will need to distribute the penalty on the would be fathers as well.